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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.