🔗 Share this article

As dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, representatives remained confined in a airless conference room, oblivious whether it was day or night. Having spent 12 hours in strained discussions, with scores ministers representing multiple blocs of countries ranging from the most vulnerable nations to the wealthiest economies.

Patience wore thin, the air stifling as exhausted delegates confronted the harsh reality: there would not be a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The latest global climate summit teetered on the brink of complete breakdown.

The central impasse: Fossil fuels

As science has told us for more than a century, the carbon dioxide produced by utilizing fossil fuels is heating up our planet to critical levels.

Nevertheless, during nearly three decades of regular climate meetings, the crucial requirement to cease fossil fuel use has been mentioned only once – in a agreement made two years ago at Cop28 to "shift from fossil fuels". Delegates from the Gulf states, Russia, and multiple other countries were resolved this would not happen again.

Increasing pressure for change

Meanwhile, a growing number of countries were similarly resolved that progress on this issue was vitally needed. They had formulated a initiative that was gathering growing support and made it evident they were prepared to dig in.

Less wealthy nations strongly sought to make progress on securing economic resources to help them address the already disastrous impacts of environmental crises.

Critical moment

In the pre-dawn period of Saturday, some delegates were willing to withdraw and cause breakdown. "We were close for us," remarked one national delegate. "I considered to walk away."

The critical development came through discussions with Saudi Arabia. Around 6am, principal delegates separated from the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the lead Saudi negotiator. They urged language that would subtly reference the global commitment to "transition away from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Surprising consensus

Rather than explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the previous commitment". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation unexpectedly accepted the wording.

Delegates expressed relief. Cheers erupted. The deal was finalized.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took a modest advance towards the systematic reduction of fossil fuels – a uncertain, limited step that will barely interrupt the climate's steady march towards disaster. But nevertheless a important shift from absolute paralysis.

Key elements of the agreement

• Alongside the oblique commitment in the formal agreement, countries will begin work a plan to phase out fossil fuels
• This will be largely a optional undertaking led by Brazil that will report back next year
• Addressing the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was likewise deferred to next year
• Developing countries achieved a significant expansion to $120bn of regular financial support to help them manage the impacts of climate disasters
• This amount will not be delivered in full until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "fair adjustment program" to help people working in polluting businesses transition to the clean economy

Varied responses

While our planet approaches the brink of climate "critical thresholds" that could eliminate habitats and force whole regions into disorder, the agreement was insufficient as the "giant leap" needed.

"Negotiators delivered some baby steps in the correct path, but in light of the magnitude of the climate crisis, it has fallen short of the occasion," cautioned one climate expert.

This limited deal might have been the maximum achievable, given the international tensions – including a American leader who avoided the talks and remains committed to oil and coal, the growing influence of conservative movements, ongoing conflicts in various areas, intolerable levels of inequality, and global economic volatility.

"Fossil fuel corporations – the oil and gas companies – were at last in the spotlight at these negotiations," says one policy convener. "We have crossed a threshold on that. The platform is open. Now we must convert it to a genuine solution to a safer world."

Deep fissures revealed

While nations were able to celebrate the formal approval of the deal, Cop30 also exposed major disagreements in the sole international mechanism for addressing the climate crisis.

"International summits are consensus-based, and in a period of geopolitical divides, consensus is progressively challenging to reach," commented one senior UN official. "It would be dishonest to claim that these talks has provided all that is needed. The gap between our current position and what science demands remains concerningly substantial."

When the world is to avert the gravest consequences of climate collapse, the global discussions alone will prove insufficient.