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In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister emerged as the only EU chief to support Donald Trump. This support came as no shock, given the Hungarian leader's embrace of contentious ideas like population replacement concept and the restrictions against journalistic liberties. Analysts point out that Hungary's premier practically laid the groundwork for the Maga movement, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon hailing him as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance Ahead of Hungary's Polls

In recent days, ahead of pivotal polls in Hungary merely approaching in six months, the American leader reciprocated with support. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth term in office leading a country he describes as an illiberal state, his ruling party lags in surveys. A meeting to the US capital produced more than some autographed Trump merchandise; it obtained highly beneficial pre-election gifts.

Energy Exemptions and Financial Shields

Despite previously admonishing European states on the imperative to halt all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and warning of restrictions against countries still to import Russian energy, Mr Trump agreed to grant a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. Per the Hungarian leader, the Trump administration also agreed to offer a “financial shield” to Hungary's capital should it faces any later issues, especially as Brussels continues to withhold large sums from the EU to Hungary due to rule-of-law breaches.

The particulars of this deal are unclear. Yet Mr Trump recently demonstrated his inclination to assist ideological allies after the US granted a $20bn emergency credit line to Javier Milei, Argentina's president. Even though Orbán did not secure a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the discussions nonetheless was a successful endeavor.

Brussels' Worries and International Implications

Within EU circles, Trump's actions probably emphasized the international consequences of the upcoming vote, before which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, has a comfortable lead in opinion data. EU chiefs are accustomed not to expect steady principles from the Trump administration, and accept the American leader's moves to diminish the EU. But the waiver for Hungary – which came at the price of an agreement to buy US gas and nuclear energy – flagrantly undermines European goals to eliminate imports of Russian energy by the target date.

• Starting in 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian oil, these two countries, have funneled substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Simultaneously, Hungary has repeatedly used the veto power to impede moves in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for supporting Kyiv, and bolstering its position in any future peace negotiations, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the negotiating table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has refrained from promising a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and directed his efforts on home affairs, while highlighting the necessity for Hungary to start acting as a productive EU partner. After enduring so many years of trolling, Brussels can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to fundamental European principles, like the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has remained a source of shame for the EU. His persistent opposition on the Ukraine issue could harm its long-term safety.